The Red Folder

Cody Brown — January 27, 2026

Despite Donald Trump winning the 2024 election in rather convincing fashion, scoring an additional 86 electoral votes over Kamala Harris, many political pundits theorized the second Trump administration’s largest hurdle would be maintaining that coalition of voters. Under the Make America Great Again (MAGA) umbrella, voting polls indicated a complete realignment of American politics, shifting previously blue demographics, including Hispanics and African Americans, to mark the Republican nominee on their ballots.

However, a year later, it appears that the voter bloc has widely vanished, leaving Trump and his GOP with less support ahead of the midterm elections in November 2026. This dissolution didn’t occur overnight; instead being a result of governmental instability, party infighting, and economic woes taking a toll on voters. While 93% of MAGA voters still approve of the president, that number drops to only 69% for non-MAGA Republicans, indicating the two groups aren’t as synonymous as they appeared to be in 2024. This change, in the coming months, is likely to be met with numerous policy shifts from incumbents in the House and the Senate. As the GOP fractures itself between MAGA and non-MAGA, Republican candidates will have to scramble to identify voter bases they can still place their trust in and drive messaging home.

What muddies the issue is the damage already incurred to the GOP by association with the current party. 80 years of empirical evidence point to the political party in power at the beginning of a presidency being most likely to lose in the midterms. Even in a good year, when political issues arise, Congress is the first to take the blame, and with this year’s cycle seeing the GOP in control of the White House and both chambers of Congress, voters are even more likely to look for seats to flip. Furthermore, the historic government shutdown that took place in late 2025 only compounded the pressure that pluralism has put on the current administration’s alignments, highlighting early GOP tensions: the 222 to 209 vote featured two Republican dissenters. Unfortunately for Americans, it seems shutdowns aren’t out of the conversation yet either, as controversy over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding and Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE) has cropped up, with Democratic promises to filibuster yet again. In the wake of the deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, the Republican party will be forced to decide if defending ICE is what they want to be remembered for when midterm campaigns begin, a task made even more difficult when 48% of Republicans explicitly call for abolishing the agency. Even the Republican frontrunner for Minnesota’s governor race, criminal attorney Chris Madel (who recently provided legal advice for Jonathan Ross regarding the Renee Good shooting), has dropped out of the race, citing concerns about the way the Trump administration is handling immigration enforcement.

Beyond domestic issues, the GOP also finds itself polarized on the President’s path for US foreign policy. President Trump seemed eager to expand US influence globally under his self-titled “Don-roe Doctrine,” a quippy name for the Trump Corollary of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, indicating that the states should and will intervene in matters beyond the Western Hemisphere. Latin America was the first to feel the brunt of this expansion, with the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Unsurprisingly, this also alarmed both parties within Congress, who were not made aware of the operation. MAGA-affiliated Republicans, such as Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR), have attempted to cool tensions following Maduro’s capture to little avail. In a statement, Cotton explained that “Congress isn’t notified when the FBI is going to arrest a drug trafficker . . .  nor should Congress be notified when the executive branch is executing arrests on indicted persons,” validating the president’s actions. The issue resulted in a divisive Senate vote to limit the president’s war powers over Congress, initially ending 52-47 in favor of restricting Trump. However, days later, Trump convinced two GOP members to flip their vote, resulting in a draw broken by Vice President J.D. Vance in favor of striking down the restrictions. Evidently, the five Republicans who voted against Trump were displeased, and it’s likely their voter base was as well. Polling reveals that, despite the symbolic victory over Maduro, 57% of Americans are opposed to the US “running” Venezuela, and 73% are opposed to sending troops to the country.

The same sentiments have spilled over to Trump’s divisive stance on Greenland and his dismissal of key U.S. alliances such as NATO. Trump, who claims Greenland can only be secured by the US, has since revoked the use of force to acquire the country, but has nonetheless received internal backlash. One Republican party member, Nebraska Representative Don Bacon, even reported he would push for articles of impeachment in the event of a Greenland invasion. The issue has also produced a bipartisan coalition under the NATO Unity Protection Act, aiming to prevent Trump from pressuring Greenland or other allies in the Northern Hemisphere. Again, the threat of U.S. involvement remains a stark no for many Republicans, with polling revealing 86% of Americans were opposed to militarily seizing Greenland.

In sum, it’s become evident for GOP incumbents that the MAGA wave can’t be surfed to the polls for the 2026 midterms. In the coming months, the GOP is only likely to face even greater internal pressures, as the President pushes for more hard power, economic turmoil intensifies and Democrats begin campaigning on a far more unified front. While midterm elections are never guaranteed, the Republican split is likely to harm their performance in November.